It's not clear. Virtually all component suppliers have done accelerated testing on matte tin finishes. Many are posted on the web.
As with all accelerated testing, it doesn't mean dip, if it doesn't well represent the end use environment. When that plane is screaming out of the sky and you're thinking about doing a face plant on the back of the head of the guy in front of you, waving a report touting the successful accelerated test program just doesn't seem to mean too much. You do not see any 'Comet' jet aircraft build by DeHaviland flying anymore.
While there's tons of stuff written, a good comparison study done by TI under TURI auspicisiis is: http://www.turi.org/content/content/download/1317/6190/file/Testing_and_Analysis_of_Surface_Mounted_Lead_Free_Solderin..pdf
We not convinced that all this matte tin qualification isn't just a smoke screen [butt covering] to gloss-over the lack of knowledge about the drivers to tin whiskers. NASA found tin whiskers on matte tin. Admittedly it was after 20 years, but they're still tin whiskers on matte tin, which is a world of difference from "bright" => whiskers / "matte" => no whiskers. Look here: http://nepp.nasa.gov/whisker/anecdote/20year/
There. Nice going. What a buzz killer. I've got to got find some donuts, cold pizza, er whatever.
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